Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (60%) · Cavaliers at 54¢ · $903 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
5
Cavaliers 60%
$902.52
$22.12
53¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Cavaliersavg 53¢ | $265 | $272.5 | +$7.5 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
VE VenusianCTR | Knicksavg 44¢ | $227.71 | $232.89 | +$5.18 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Cavaliersavg 53.1¢ | $211.83 | $217.44 | +$5.61 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189 | Cavaliersavg 53¢ | $135.68 | $139.52 | +$3.84 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 45¢ | $40.18 | $40.18 | +$0 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$265
Value
$272.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$227.71
Value
$232.89
PnL
+$5.18
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$211.83
Value
$217.44
PnL
+$5.61
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$135.68
Value
$139.52
PnL
+$3.84
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$40.18
Value
$40.18
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.