Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (61%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (67%) · Cavaliers at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Cavaliers40¢Knicks60¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$16.26

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 39.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers40%

Knicks61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,762

Combined PnL+$18.99

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$265.17

Total Shares412

Combined PnL-$2.73

Cavaliers — 67%Knicks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$613.99	$621.86	+$7.87	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Cavaliersavg 39.7¢	$329.11	$327.71	-$1.4	29% 307-750 (1057)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$201.88	$204.47	+$2.59	49% 220-229 (449)
DA darkumbreon88	Knicksavg 61¢	$191.65	$188.51	-$3.14	61% 900-578 (1478)
PU purplegattoCTR	Cavaliersavg 37.5¢	$173.63	$183.08	+$9.46	69% 2574-1166 (3740)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$388.44	$154.32	+$5.61	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$92.04	$93.22	+$1.18
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 60¢	$60.6	$61.1	+$4.43
LI LightParadoxCTR	Cavaliersavg 40¢	$107.01	$105.67	-$1.34	28% 299-766 (1065)
GH ghorrock<$100	Knicksavg 60.5¢	$53.1	$53.32	+$0.22	54% 401-336 (737)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 37.8¢	$41.24	$43.06	+$1.81	22% 28-100 (128)
SE sentrio<$100	Knicksavg 60¢	$23.15	$23.34	+$0.19	35% 266-490 (756)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$613.99

Value

$621.86

PnL

+$7.87

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

MadridTimeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$329.11

Value

$327.71

PnL

-$1.4

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

SnakeBallCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$201.88

Value

$204.47

PnL

+$2.59

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

darkumbreon88

Knicks

Invested

$191.65

Value

$188.51

PnL

-$3.14

Record

61%

900-578 (1478)

purplegattoCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$173.63

Value

$183.08

PnL

+$9.46

Record

69%

2574-1166 (3740)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$388.44

Value

$154.32

PnL

+$5.61

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$92.0439¢+$1.18

Knicks$60.660¢+$4.43

LightParadoxCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$107.01

Value

$105.67

PnL

-$1.34

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

ghorrock<$100

Knicks

Invested

$53.1

Value

$53.32

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

OddstormCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$41.24

Value

$43.06

PnL

+$1.81

Record

22%

28-100 (128)

sentrio<$100

Knicks

Invested

$23.15

Value

$23.34

PnL

+$0.19

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.