Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 47¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$5.6K
-$34.93
46.5¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$20 | 54% 1265-1078 (2343) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 46.4¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$43.02 | 54% 17176-14402 (31578) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $485.61 | $470.11 | -$15.5 | 54% 3356-2905 (6261) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $460 | $455 | +$5 | 53% 5630-4969 (10599) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 46.7¢ | $350 | $341.25 | -$1.25 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $15.18 | $15.02 | -$0.16 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
Invested
$2,159.98
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$20
Record
54%
1265-1078 (2343)
Invested
$2,207.81
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$43.02
Record
54%
17176-14402 (31578)
Invested
$485.61
Value
$470.11
PnL
-$15.5
Record
54%
3356-2905 (6261)
Invested
$460
Value
$455
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5630-4969 (10599)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$350
Value
$341.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
Invested
$15.18
Value
$15.02
PnL
-$0.16
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.