Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 53¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 1

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$469.66

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares27,321

Combined PnL+$505.93

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,132

Combined PnL-$36.27

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.4¢	$8.8K	$9.1K	+$356.74	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HI hi774c	Underavg 51¢	$9.8K	$5.1K	+$146.38	52% 4731-4452 (9183)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.1K	$989.4	-$10.41	53% 4134-3596 (7730)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 49¢	$988.59	$968.53	-$20.07	50% 24920-24613 (49533)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$480	$475	-$5	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$76.38	$78.54	+$2.17	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$33.81	$34.37	-$0.71	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51¢	$21.95	$22.6	+$0.65	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.4	-$0.08	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,764.72

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$356.74

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$9,758.73

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$146.38

Record

52%

4731-4452 (9183)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,082.94

Value

$989.4

PnL

-$10.41

Record

53%

4134-3596 (7730)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$988.59

Value

$968.53

PnL

-$20.07

Record

50%

24920-24613 (49533)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$480

Value

$475

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

Herdonia<$100

Under

Invested

$76.38

Value

$78.54

PnL

+$2.17

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.81

Value

$34.37

PnL

-$0.71

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$21.95

Value

$22.6

PnL

+$0.65

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.