Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 235.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$5.9K
-$49.39
50¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | -$43.71 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $500 | $495 | -$5 | 53% 5632-4972 (10604) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50.5¢ | $36.36 | $35.64 | -$0.72 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $16.24 | $16.26 | +$0.01 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.48 | +$0.02 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
Invested
$5,419.47
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$43.71
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$500
Value
$495
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5632-4972 (10604)
Invested
$36.36
Value
$35.64
PnL
-$0.72
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$16.24
Value
$16.26
PnL
+$0.01
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.