Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 53¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 1

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.7K

Combined PnL

-$20.81

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares19,307

Combined PnL-$20.81

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$10.6K	$10.6K	+$30.85	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$15.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$46.4
TA takeormake	Overavg 52.8¢	$10.1K	$5.3K	-$27.36	53% 4134-3596 (7730)
RO royalestake	Overavg 52¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$0	47% 380-437 (817)
TO tomb2456	Overavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	50% 292-288 (580)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 52¢	$520	$525	+$5	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
BA Babooou	Overavg 52¢	$168.4	$170.02	+$1.62	52% 213-198 (411)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 52.9¢	$28.04	$27.83	-$0.21	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$18.02	$18.02	-$0	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 52¢	$20	$10.5	+$0.1	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.25	+$0.05	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$10,592.43

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$30.85

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Under$5,436.6747.6¢-$15.56

Over$5,155.7552¢+$46.4

takeormake

Over

Invested

$10,095.98

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$27.36

Record

53%

4134-3596 (7730)

royalestake

Over

Invested

$3,000.42

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

380-437 (817)

tomb2456

Over

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$520

Value

$525

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

Babooou

Over

Invested

$168.4

Value

$170.02

PnL

+$1.62

Record

52%

213-198 (411)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$28.04

Value

$27.83

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$18.02

Value

$18.02

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.