Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (43%) · Cavaliers at 58¢ · $429 held · ended Nov 1

Cavaliers58¢Bucks42¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$429.41

Combined PnL

-$14.65

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 58¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers58%

Bucks42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers3 traders

Total Value$158.28

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$0.95

Bucks4 traders

Total Value$173.14

Total Shares414

Combined PnL-$15.6

Cavaliers — 43%Bucks — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Cavaliersavg 59¢	$147.5	$148.75	+$1.25	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
TA takeormakeCTR	Bucksavg 47.5¢	$144.25	$127.68	-$16.57	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Bucksavg 53¢	$97.02	$98	+$0.98	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 53¢	$51.94	$51.45	-$0.49
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$45.08	$46.55	+$1.47
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Bucksavg 39.8¢	$25.87	$26.98	+$1.11	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Bucksavg 42¢	$14.51	$14.33	-$0.19	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$6.92	$6.6	-$0.32	48% 959-1040 (1999)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 41¢	$4.1	$4.15	+$0.05	52% 7347-6663 (14010)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Cavaliersavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.93	+$0.02	62% 4162-2553 (6715)

RN1

Cavaliers

Invested

$147.5

Value

$148.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

takeormakeCTR

Bucks

Invested

$144.25

Value

$127.68

PnL

-$16.57

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$97.02

Value

$98

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

Both legs:

Bucks$51.9453¢-$0.49

Cavaliers$45.0846¢+$1.47

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$25.87

Value

$26.98

PnL

+$1.11

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$14.51

Value

$14.33

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$6.92

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$0.32

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

7347-6663 (14010)

SunlineTicker<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.02

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.