Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (91%) · Bucks at 54¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1

Cavaliers47¢Bucks53¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 91%

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$281.9

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers47%

Bucks54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks10 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares14,432

Combined PnL+$344.67

Cavaliers1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,150

Combined PnL-$62.77

Bucks — 91%Cavaliers — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO tomb2456	Bucksavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$165.84	50% 292-288 (580)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 54.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$5.5	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
scootergeneCTR	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$62.77	54% 374-322 (696)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Bucksavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$59.56	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
AY ay118	Bucksavg 53¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$9.82	51% 25-24 (49)
VeryLucky888	Bucksavg 53¢	$795	$840	+$45	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Bucksavg 54¢	$540	$560	+$20	53% 5632-4970 (10602)
BA Bagwell306	Bucksavg 52¢	$520	$560	+$40	59% 4052-2862 (6914)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bucksavg 55.6¢	$38.36	$36.92	-$1.45	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
0xheavy888<$100	Bucksavg 54¢	$10.8	$11.2	+$0.4	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bucksavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.6	+$0	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

tomb2456

Bucks

Invested

$2,155.91

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$165.84

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$2,232.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$5.5

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

scootergeneCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,448.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$62.77

Record

54%

374-322 (696)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Bucks

Invested

$1,052.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$59.56

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

ay118

Bucks

Invested

$1,040.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.82

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

VeryLucky888

Bucks

Invested

$795

Value

$840

PnL

+$45

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Bucks

Invested

$540

Value

$560

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

5632-4970 (10602)

Bagwell306

Bucks

Invested

$520

Value

$560

PnL

+$40

Record

59%

4052-2862 (6914)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bucks

Invested

$38.36

Value

$36.92

PnL

-$1.45

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

0xheavy888<$100

Bucks

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bucks

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.