Cavaliers vs. Bucks
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (71%) · Cavaliers at 76¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
7
Cavaliers 71%
$5.2K
-$19.57
75.6¢ → 75.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 scootergene | Cavaliersavg 76¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$20.74 | 54% 371-318 (689) |
 VeryLucky888 | Cavaliersavg 75¢ | $809.77 | $820.56 | +$10.8 | 58% 41739-30322 (72061) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Bucksavg 25.1¢ | $457.93 | $438.48 | -$19.45 | 53% 4003-3486 (7489) |
OD Oddstorm | Cavaliersavg 74.2¢ | $402.48 | $412.2 | +$9.72 | 38% 385-628 (1013) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 24¢ | $221 | $221 | +$0 | 54% 17133-14341 (31474) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Cavaliersavg 76¢ | $90.14 | $90.14 | +$0 | 54% 3326-2874 (6200) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Cavaliersavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $7.6 | +$0.1 | 56% 7097-5686 (12783) |
scootergeneInvested
$3,191.75
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$20.74
Record
54%
371-318 (689)
VeryLucky888Invested
$809.77
Value
$820.56
PnL
+$10.8
Record
58%
41739-30322 (72061)
Invested
$457.93
Value
$438.48
PnL
-$19.45
Record
53%
4003-3486 (7489)
Invested
$402.48
Value
$412.2
PnL
+$9.72
Record
38%
385-628 (1013)
Invested
$221
Value
$221
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
17133-14341 (31474)
Invested
$90.14
Value
$90.14
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3326-2874 (6200)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
7097-5686 (12783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.