Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 51¢ · $625 held · ends Oct 30

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$624.51

Combined PnL

-$0.84

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$471.25

Total Shares930

Combined PnL+$0.08

Under4 traders

Total Value$153.26

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$0.92

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE Herdonia	Overavg 51¢	$313.44	$310.37	-$3.07	54% 3276-2822 (6098)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$157.73	$160.88	+$3.15	54% 17003-14250 (31253)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$246.15	$123.76	-$1	58% 41209-29876 (71085)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$21.18	$21.18	-$0	43% 3532-4771 (8303)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$4.85	$4.9	+$0.05	47% 2162-2466 (4628)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$3.43	$3.43	+$0.04	52% 3686-3349 (7035)

Herdonia

Over

Invested

$313.44

Value

$310.37

PnL

-$3.07

Record

54%

3276-2822 (6098)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$157.73

Value

$160.88

PnL

+$3.15

Record

54%

17003-14250 (31253)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$246.15

Value

$123.76

PnL

-$1

Record

58%

41209-29876 (71085)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.18

Value

$21.18

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

3532-4771 (8303)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

2162-2466 (4628)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

3686-3349 (7035)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.