Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 45¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 30

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 92%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$144.34

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 44.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares25,491

Combined PnL+$124.55

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,958

Combined PnL+$19.79

Under — 92%Over — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 44.4¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$13.05	54% 17010-14258 (31268)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 44¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$42.73	47% 2451-2751 (5202)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$19.79	50% 6902-6894 (13796)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 44¢	$440	$500	+$60	53% 5553-4920 (10473)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44.4¢	$238.97	$239.55	+$0.58	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
RN1CTR	Underavg 44¢	$220	$222.5	+$2.5	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$27.92	$31.58	+$3.65	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$21.12	$21.36	+$0.24	50% 3763-3735 (7498)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$16.65	$18.5	+$1.85	58% 28259-20841 (49100)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$6.64	$6.57	-$0.07	57% 13381-10228 (23609)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.45	+$0.05	55% 6996-5613 (12609)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.23	-$0.02	47% 2189-2483 (4672)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$6,541.45

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$13.05

Record

54%

17010-14258 (31268)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$3,760.23

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$42.73

Record

47%

2451-2751 (5202)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$2,177.07

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$19.79

Record

50%

6902-6894 (13796)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$440

Value

$500

PnL

+$60

Record

53%

5553-4920 (10473)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$238.97

Value

$239.55

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$220

Value

$222.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.92

Value

$31.58

PnL

+$3.65

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.12

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

3763-3735 (7498)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.65

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$1.85

Record

58%

28259-20841 (49100)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.64

Value

$6.57

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

6996-5613 (12609)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2189-2483 (4672)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.