Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 78¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
$1.4K
51.2¢ → 78¢
+52% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 hammyandcheese | Underavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.7K | +$700 | 56% 374-294 (668) |
ET ethanaz | Underavg 52¢ | $431.49 | $721.91 | +$290.42 | 52% 660-605 (1265) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $1.2K | $574.16 | -$4.53 | 49% 683-711 (1394) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $290.46 | $399.39 | +$108.92 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $288.22 | $174.77 | -$113.45 | |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 48.4¢ | $305.76 | $549.63 | +$243.87 | 56% 2802-2223 (5025) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 51.9¢ | $140.24 | $222.5 | +$82.26 | 52% 3834-3490 (7324) |
WO woshikd99 | Underavg 52¢ | $78.52 | $131.37 | +$52.85 | 54% 98-83 (181) |
BU BullishBarb<$100 | Underavg 35.8¢ | $15.66 | $33.93 | +$18.27 | 43% 3532-4772 (8304) |
hammyandcheeseInvested
$1,040
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$700
Record
56%
374-294 (668)
Invested
$431.49
Value
$721.91
PnL
+$290.42
Record
52%
660-605 (1265)
Invested
$1,171.82
Value
$574.16
PnL
-$4.53
Record
49%
683-711 (1394)
Both legs:
Invested
$305.76
Value
$549.63
PnL
+$243.87
Record
56%
2802-2223 (5025)
HRTradingInvested
$140.24
Value
$222.5
PnL
+$82.26
Record
52%
3834-3490 (7324)
Invested
$78.52
Value
$131.37
PnL
+$52.85
Record
54%
98-83 (181)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$33.93
PnL
+$18.27
Record
43%
3532-4772 (8304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.