Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 73¢

+42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,046

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.35

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$1.05

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Underavg 49¢	$589.33	$1.0K	+$210.47	52% 5751-5327 (11078)
latvian.demon	Underavg 55¢	$522.47	$797.96	+$275.49	54% 668-569 (1237)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 54¢	$387.31	$592.59	+$83.13	49% 683-711 (1394)
AN Anon455	Underavg 30¢	$219.69	$514.25	+$294.56	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
HRTrading	Underavg 66.1¢	$178.99	$215.83	+$36.84	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
WO woshikd99	Underavg 48.3¢	$97.05	$168.84	+$71.79	54% 98-83 (181)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5	Underavg 87¢	$79.77	$163.93	+$40.37	—
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 32¢	$14.4	$24.75	+$10.35	50% 6911-6901 (13812)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 68¢	$3.4	$2.35	-$1.05	58% 28294-20870 (49164)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$589.33

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$210.47

Record

52%

5751-5327 (11078)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$522.47

Value

$797.96

PnL

+$275.49

Record

54%

668-569 (1237)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$387.31

Value

$592.59

PnL

+$83.13

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$219.69

Value

$514.25

PnL

+$294.56

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$178.99

Value

$215.83

PnL

+$36.84

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

woshikd99

Under

Invested

$97.05

Value

$168.84

PnL

+$71.79

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

0x0d2d...7ff5

Under

Invested

$79.77

Value

$163.93

PnL

+$40.37

Record

—

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$14.4

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$10.35

Record

50%

6911-6901 (13812)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$1.05

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.