Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 68¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$177.81

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 67.5¢

+38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,488

Combined PnL+$222.41

Over2 traders

Total Value$42.15

Total Shares234

Combined PnL-$44.6

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50¢	$653.49	$1.1K	+$156.84	49% 683-711 (1394)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5	Underavg 42¢	$61.77	$120.54	+$58.77	—
HRTradingARB<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$74.19	$64.45	-$9.74	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.6¢	$25.07	$33.43	+$8.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$49.12	$31.02	-$18.1
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$82.51	$40.14	-$42.37	63% 8088-4821 (12909)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 30¢	$10.2	$17	+$6.8	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$4.24	$2.01	-$2.23	53% 6117-5362 (11479)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$653.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$156.84

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

0x0d2d...7ff5

Under

Invested

$61.77

Value

$120.54

PnL

+$58.77

Record

—

HRTradingARB<$100

Over

Invested

$74.19

Value

$64.45

PnL

-$9.74

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

Both legs:

Under$25.0750.6¢+$8.36

Over$49.1251.5¢-$18.1

torta.techCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.51

Value

$40.14

PnL

-$42.37

Record

63%

8088-4821 (12909)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$10.2

Value

$17

PnL

+$6.8

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.24

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$2.23

Record

53%

6117-5362 (11479)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.