Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 36¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$472.79

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 35.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,627

Combined PnL-$569.67

Under4 traders

Total Value$554.56

Total Shares736

Combined PnL+$96.87

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Overavg 32¢	$895.68	$629.78	-$265.91	52% 5751-5327 (11078)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 54.4¢	$601.64	$392.44	-$209.2	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
AN Anon455	Underavg 66.1¢	$303.65	$355.92	+$52.27	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 34¢	$196.29	$130.05	-$66.24	53% 363-319 (682)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5	Under	$105.4	$105.4	+$27.86	—
WO woshikd99<$100	Underavg 57¢	$54.15	$61.28	+$7.13	54% 98-83 (181)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$22.34	$31.97	+$9.63	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$57.96	$31.05	-$26.91	63% 8088-4821 (12909)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.97	$1.55	-$1.41	53% 6117-5362 (11479)

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$895.68

Value

$629.78

PnL

-$265.91

Record

52%

5751-5327 (11078)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$601.64

Value

$392.44

PnL

-$209.2

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$303.65

Value

$355.92

PnL

+$52.27

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$196.29

Value

$130.05

PnL

-$66.24

Record

53%

363-319 (682)

0x0d2d...7ff5

Under

Invested

$105.4

Value

$105.4

PnL

+$27.86

Record

—

woshikd99<$100

Under

Invested

$54.15

Value

$61.28

PnL

+$7.13

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$22.34

Value

$31.97

PnL

+$9.63

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

torta.techCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.96

Value

$31.05

PnL

-$26.91

Record

63%

8088-4821 (12909)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.97

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

6117-5362 (11479)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.