Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 223.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 100¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$210.32

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 99.5¢

+94% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares16,778

Combined PnL-$437.75

Over4 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares18,924

Combined PnL+$648.07

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$7.9K	$7.5K	-$372.89	49% 683-711 (1394)
Nooserac	Overavg 49¢	$6.6K	$6.7K	+$67.41	52% 5751-5327 (11078)
TA takeormake	Overavg 58¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$584.29	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	-$327.42	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.3¢	$259.03	$696.71	+$63.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$1.1K	$690.52	-$391.13
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 33.5¢	$471.55	$504.33	+$32.78	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.7¢	$235.48	$275.62	+$40.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.5¢	$236.07	$228.71	-$7.36
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Underavg 38.5¢	$725.74	$448.37	-$36.1	—
latvian.demon	Overavg 50¢	$375	$371.25	-$3.75	54% 668-569 (1237)
WO woshikd99CTR	Underavg 51¢	$82.5	$105.15	+$22.65	54% 98-83 (181)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 63.2¢	$56.08	$62.39	+$6.31	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 52.6¢	$85.69	$42.38	-$43.31	50% 3766-3742 (7508)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 66.6¢	$30.6	$14.93	-$15.67	59% 30249-20952 (51201)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$5.32	$6.58	+$1.27	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.58	+$0.13	50% 7795-7813 (15608)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$7,888.46

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$372.89

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

Nooserac

Over

Invested

$6,606.18

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$67.41

Record

52%

5751-5327 (11078)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$2,719.73

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$584.29

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,340.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$327.42

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

Both legs:

Over$259.0325.3¢+$63.71

Under$1,081.6450.1¢-$391.13

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$471.55

Value

$504.33

PnL

+$32.78

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

Over$235.4857.7¢+$40.15

Under$236.0733.5¢-$7.36

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Under

Invested

$725.74

Value

$448.37

PnL

-$36.1

Record

—

latvian.demon

Over

Invested

$375

Value

$371.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

54%

668-569 (1237)

woshikd99CTR

Under

Invested

$82.5

Value

$105.15

PnL

+$22.65

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.08

Value

$62.39

PnL

+$6.31

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.69

Value

$42.38

PnL

-$43.31

Record

50%

3766-3742 (7508)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.6

Value

$14.93

PnL

-$15.67

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.32

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$1.27

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

7795-7813 (15608)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.