Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 221.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$70.07

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 99.5¢

+85% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,789

Combined PnL+$165.13

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,871

Combined PnL-$95.06

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$145.44	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
CH chiefphi	Overavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$39.11	52% 98-91 (189)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 42.5¢	$901.33	$933.95	+$32.62	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$540.86	$691.63	+$150.77	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.5¢	$442.11	$541.03	+$98.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 29.8¢	$98.75	$150.61	+$51.86
TO torta.tech	Overavg 51.4¢	$120.84	$182.13	+$61.29	63% 8088-4821 (12909)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 47¢	$109.18	$102.3	-$6.88	49% 683-711 (1394)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Underavg 41.4¢	$189.93	$81.38	-$99.59	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$56.43	$56.43	-$0	59% 30249-20952 (51201)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$47.48	$47.68	+$0.2	55% 8186-6601 (14787)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$24.77	$26.64	+$1.87	54% 98-83 (181)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$43.44	$20.36	-$23.08	50% 3766-3742 (7508)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 62.4¢	$19.35	$13.91	-$5.44	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$7.75	+$2.75	53% 6117-5362 (11479)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,211.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$145.44

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

chiefphi

Over

Invested

$1,179.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$39.11

Record

52%

98-91 (189)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$901.33

Value

$933.95

PnL

+$32.62

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$540.86

Value

$691.63

PnL

+$150.77

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

Over$442.1144.5¢+$98.91

Under$98.7529.8¢+$51.86

torta.tech

Over

Invested

$120.84

Value

$182.13

PnL

+$61.29

Record

63%

8088-4821 (12909)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$109.18

Value

$102.3

PnL

-$6.88

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Under

Invested

$189.93

Value

$81.38

PnL

-$99.59

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.43

Value

$56.43

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$47.48

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

8186-6601 (14787)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.77

Value

$26.64

PnL

+$1.87

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.44

Value

$20.36

PnL

-$23.08

Record

50%

3766-3742 (7508)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$19.35

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$5.44

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

53%

6117-5362 (11479)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.