Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Cavaliers (100%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (55%) · Hawks at 0.5¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 30

Hawks<1¢Cavaliers>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

-$102.6

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks1%

Cavaliers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,617

Combined PnL-$191.6

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$732.17

Total Shares1,102

Combined PnL+$88.99

Hawks — 55%Cavaliers — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Hawksavg 53.3¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$148.06	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 53.3¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$17.39
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 42.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$165.45
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$4.5K	$3.2K	$-1.3K	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 51¢	$3.7K	$2.2K	$-1.5K
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 54.5¢	$783.06	$998.21	+$215.14
NooseracCTR	Hawksavg 52¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$83.61	52% 5751-5327 (11078)
AN Anon455CTR	Hawksavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$86.91	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Hawksavg 50.7¢	$764.99	$430.09	-$181.14	—
WO woshikd99	Cavaliersavg 49.8¢	$362.27	$405.09	+$42.82	54% 98-83 (181)
HRTrading	Cavaliersavg 39.5¢	$100.41	$149.85	+$49.44	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
SH shoemanhere	Cavaliersavg 59¢	$101.48	$87.72	-$13.76	56% 7066-5462 (12528)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Hawksavg 40.5¢	$89.55	$83.98	-$5.57	49% 683-711 (1394)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$39.42	$52.71	+$13.29	59% 30249-20952 (51201)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Cavaliersavg 99¢	$39.6	$36.8	-$2.8	86% 4948-822 (5770)
US User7429CTR<$100	Hawksavg 40¢	$16.4	$14.97	-$1.43	55% 8186-6601 (14787)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Hawksavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.15	-$0.15	50% 6911-6901 (13812)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4,279.52

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$148.06

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

Hawks$2,795.1153.3¢-$17.39

Cavaliers$1,484.442.3¢+$165.45

takeormakeARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4,525.17

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Both legs:

Hawks$3,742.1151¢$-1.5K

Cavaliers$783.0654.5¢+$215.14

NooseracCTR

Hawks

Invested

$2,888.32

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$83.61

Record

52%

5751-5327 (11078)

Anon455CTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,299.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$86.91

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Hawks

Invested

$764.99

Value

$430.09

PnL

-$181.14

Record

—

woshikd99

Cavaliers

Invested

$362.27

Value

$405.09

PnL

+$42.82

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

HRTrading

Cavaliers

Invested

$100.41

Value

$149.85

PnL

+$49.44

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

shoemanhere

Cavaliers

Invested

$101.48

Value

$87.72

PnL

-$13.76

Record

56%

7066-5462 (12528)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$89.55

Value

$83.98

PnL

-$5.57

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$39.42

Value

$52.71

PnL

+$13.29

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$39.6

Value

$36.8

PnL

-$2.8

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

User7429CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$16.4

Value

$14.97

PnL

-$1.43

Record

55%

8186-6601 (14787)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

6911-6901 (13812)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.