Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Cavaliers (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (40%) · Hawks at 0.5¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 30

Hawks<1¢Cavaliers>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks1%

Cavaliers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks4 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares19,200

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$375.43

Total Shares753

Combined PnL+$6.1

Hawks — 40%Cavaliers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hawksavg 51¢	$9.3K	$8.0K	$-1.2K	49% 683-711 (1394)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hawksavg 59.6¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$343.53	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 59.6¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$726.53
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 42.9¢	$964.45	$1.3K	+$382.99
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Hawksavg 61.7¢	$1.0K	$928.59	-$71.8	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 61.7¢	$654.98	$642.51	-$12.47
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 47.7¢	$345.4	$286.08	-$59.33
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Hawksavg 55.7¢	$740.87	$335.62	-$294.16	—
WO woshikd99ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 49.4¢	$309.91	$269.6	-$40.31	54% 98-83 (181)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 49.4¢	$261.54	$209.1	-$52.44
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 48.4¢	$48.37	$60.5	+$12.13
AN Anon455	Cavaliersavg 45.8¢	$220.82	$216.87	-$3.95	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Hawksavg 37¢	$108.78	$108.78	-$0	50% 6911-6901 (13812)
HRTrading<$100	Cavaliersavg 33.2¢	$55.95	$68.39	+$12.44	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
US User7429<$100	Cavaliersavg 54¢	$41	$41.79	+$0.79	55% 8186-6601 (14787)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Cavaliersavg 98¢	$39.19	$35.39	-$3.8	86% 4948-822 (5770)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Cavaliersavg 63¢	$10.08	$10.08	-$0.08	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100	Hawksavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.03	+$0.38	56% 7066-5462 (12528)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Cavaliersavg 30¢	$2.21	$2.91	+$0.7	59% 30249-20952 (51201)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hawks

Invested

$9,276.73

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$3,171.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$343.53

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Both legs:

Hawks$2,206.8359.6¢-$726.53

Cavaliers$964.4542.9¢+$382.99

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1,000.38

Value

$928.59

PnL

-$71.8

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

Hawks$654.9861.7¢-$12.47

Cavaliers$345.447.7¢-$59.33

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Hawks

Invested

$740.87

Value

$335.62

PnL

-$294.16

Record

—

woshikd99ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$309.91

Value

$269.6

PnL

-$40.31

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$261.5449.4¢-$52.44

Hawks$48.3748.4¢+$12.13

Anon455

Cavaliers

Invested

$220.82

Value

$216.87

PnL

-$3.95

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

Forecastication2CTR

Hawks

Invested

$108.78

Value

$108.78

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

6911-6901 (13812)

HRTrading<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$55.95

Value

$68.39

PnL

+$12.44

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

User7429<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$41

Value

$41.79

PnL

+$0.79

Record

55%

8186-6601 (14787)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$39.19

Value

$35.39

PnL

-$3.8

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

shoemanhereCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.38

Record

56%

7066-5462 (12528)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.7

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.