Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Cavaliers (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (78%) · Hawks at 0.5¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 30

Hawks<1¢Cavaliers>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 78%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$260.11

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 100%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks1%

Cavaliers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,492

Combined PnL+$267.88

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$52.57

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$7.76

Hawks — 78%Cavaliers — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hawksavg 55.7¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$388.78	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 55.7¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$554.34
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 45.1¢	$721.79	$887.36	+$165.56
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Hawksavg 58.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$8.48	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 58.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$61.84
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 44.2¢	$546.23	$475.91	-$70.32
AW awesoCTR	Hawksavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.21	52% 37-34 (71)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Hawksavg 68.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9.67	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 68.1¢	$591.3	$607.61	+$16.31
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 31.8¢	$453.11	$427.14	-$25.98
HRTradingCTR	Hawksavg 51.8¢	$566.25	$802.44	+$236.19	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Hawksavg 51¢	$500	$495.1	-$4.9	— 4-2 (6)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5ARB<$100	Hawksavg 63.7¢	$1.0K	$418.01	-$314.09	—
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$177.38	$323.25	+$145.72
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 63.7¢	$483.08	$94.76	-$459.81
WO woshikd99ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 42.9¢	$226.91	$212.94	-$13.97	54% 98-83 (181)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 55.1¢	$95.2	$120.84	+$25.64
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 42.9¢	$131.71	$92.1	-$39.61
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 48.8¢	$162.67	$169.22	+$6.55	49% 683-711 (1394)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 48.8¢	$83.33	$91.28	+$7.95
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 47.3¢	$79.34	$77.94	-$1.4
SH shoemanhereCTR	Hawksavg 51¢	$73.89	$123.85	+$49.96	56% 7066-5462 (12528)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Hawksavg 47¢	$46.53	$46.04	-$0.49	49% 18884-19303 (38187)
CH chiefphiCTR<$100	Hawksavg 42¢	$41.58	$43.07	+$1.48	52% 98-91 (189)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Cavaliersavg 99¢	$39.6	$30.8	-$8.8	86% 4948-822 (5770)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Cavaliersavg 60¢	$20.73	$21.77	+$1.04	54% 17021-14267 (31288)
US User7429CTR<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$21.45	$18.3	-$3.15	55% 8186-6601 (14787)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$3,469.51

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$388.78

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Both legs:

Hawks$2,747.7155.7¢-$554.34

Cavaliers$721.7945.1¢+$165.56

Anon455ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1,800.06

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$8.48

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

Both legs:

Hawks$1,253.8358.6¢+$61.84

Cavaliers$546.2344.2¢-$70.32

awesoCTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,120.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.21

Record

52%

37-34 (71)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1,044.41

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.67

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

Hawks$591.368.1¢+$16.31

Cavaliers$453.1131.8¢-$25.98

HRTradingCTR

Hawks

Invested

$566.25

Value

$802.44

PnL

+$236.19

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Hawks

Invested

$500

Value

$495.1

PnL

-$4.9

Record

—

4-2 (6)

0x0d2d...7ff5ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1,034.69

Value

$418.01

PnL

-$314.09

Record

—

Both legs:

Cavaliers$177.3848¢+$145.72

Hawks$483.0863.7¢-$459.81

woshikd99ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$226.91

Value

$212.94

PnL

-$13.97

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

Both legs:

Hawks$95.255.1¢+$25.64

Cavaliers$131.7142.9¢-$39.61

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$162.67

Value

$169.22

PnL

+$6.55

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$83.3348.8¢+$7.95

Hawks$79.3447.3¢-$1.4

shoemanhereCTR

Hawks

Invested

$73.89

Value

$123.85

PnL

+$49.96

Record

56%

7066-5462 (12528)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$46.53

Value

$46.04

PnL

-$0.49

Record

49%

18884-19303 (38187)

chiefphiCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$41.58

Value

$43.07

PnL

+$1.48

Record

52%

98-91 (189)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$39.6

Value

$30.8

PnL

-$8.8

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$20.73

Value

$21.77

PnL

+$1.04

Record

54%

17021-14267 (31288)

User7429CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$21.45

Value

$18.3

PnL

-$3.15

Record

55%

8186-6601 (14787)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 100%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.