Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (56%) · Hawks at 64¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 30

Hawks64¢Cavaliers36¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$740.66

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 63.5¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks64%

Cavaliers37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,284

Combined PnL+$711.63

Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$154.61

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$29.03

Hawks — 56%Cavaliers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (4 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Hawksavg 44¢	$2.2K	$3.0K	+$878.53	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 50.8¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$262.6	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$160
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 50.8¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$422.6
JU justaluckydude	Hawksavg 49.2¢	$337.32	$385.22	+$47.9	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
CH chiefphi	Hawksavg 48¢	$480	$280	-$200	52% 98-91 (189)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5ARB<$100	Hawksavg 59.9¢	$285.68	$268.24	-$17.45	—
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 59.9¢	$155.7	$185.9	+$30.2
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 45¢	$129.99	$82.34	-$47.65
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 58¢	$290	$109.32	+$21.34	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
WO woshikd99<$100	Hawksavg 46¢	$26.14	$21.97	-$4.16	54% 98-83 (181)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 40.6¢	$16.54	$18.65	+$2.11	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 56¢	$11.2	$14.4	+$3.2	49% 683-711 (1394)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 58¢	$9.86	$12.24	+$2.38	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
BU BullishBarb<$100	Hawksavg 41¢	$18.94	$8.32	-$10.63	43% 3532-4772 (8304)

takeormake

Hawks

Invested

$2,159.05

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$878.53

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Anon455ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,562.24

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$262.6

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

Both legs:

Hawks$1,06053¢+$160

Cavaliers$1,502.2450.8¢-$422.6

justaluckydude

Hawks

Invested

$337.32

Value

$385.22

PnL

+$47.9

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

chiefphi

Hawks

Invested

$480

Value

$280

PnL

-$200

Record

52%

98-91 (189)

0x0d2d...7ff5ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$285.68

Value

$268.24

PnL

-$17.45

Record

—

Both legs:

Hawks$155.759.9¢+$30.2

Cavaliers$129.9945¢-$47.65

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$290

Value

$109.32

PnL

+$21.34

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

woshikd99<$100

Hawks

Invested

$26.14

Value

$21.97

PnL

-$4.16

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$16.54

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$2.11

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$11.2

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$3.2

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$9.86

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$2.38

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

BullishBarb<$100

Hawks

Invested

$18.94

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$10.63

Record

43%

3532-4772 (8304)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (4 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.