Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (64%) · Hawks at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 30

Hawks>99¢Cavaliers<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 99.5¢

+63% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks100%

Cavaliers1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks9 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares16,039

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,552

Combined PnL+$30.6

Hawks — 64%Cavaliers — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Hawksavg 58.2¢	$7.4K	$9.2K	+$1.8K	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
TA takeormake	Hawksavg 66.4¢	$2.6K	$3.4K	+$743.55	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$35.12	49% 683-711 (1394)
AN Anon455	Hawksavg 69.4¢	$831.66	$802.93	-$22.6	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5ARB<$100	Hawksavg 65.3¢	$823.05	$502.41	+$0.69	—
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 65.3¢	$410.81	$320.62	-$46.29
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 38.4¢	$142.38	$181.79	+$46.98
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR	Cavaliersavg 49.6¢	$291.58	$241.53	+$50.61	51% 205-197 (402)
HRTrading	Hawksavg 53¢	$160.89	$229.05	+$68.16	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
WO woshikd99	Hawksavg 50.8¢	$92	$108.6	+$16.6	54% 98-83 (181)
balthazarCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 1¢	$0.6	$29.4	+$28.8	61% 20914-13310 (34224)
SH shoemanhere<$100	Hawksavg 89.2¢	$44.6	$25.5	-$19.1	56% 7066-5462 (12528)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Hawksavg 99¢	$39.6	$20.4	-$19.2	86% 4948-822 (5770)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hawksavg 45¢	$10.35	$10.81	+$0.46	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 54.2¢	$42.27	$9.31	-$13.69	57% 13416-10256 (23672)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Hawksavg 47¢	$7.79	$6.8	-$1	53% 2132-1897 (4029)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 38¢	$2.28	$2.28	+$0	59% 30249-20952 (51201)

justaluckydude

Hawks

Invested

$7,383.57

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

takeormake

Hawks

Invested

$2,634.05

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$743.55

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,193.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$35.12

Record

49%

683-711 (1394)

Anon455

Hawks

Invested

$831.66

Value

$802.93

PnL

-$22.6

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

0x0d2d...7ff5ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$823.05

Value

$502.41

PnL

+$0.69

Record

—

Both legs:

Hawks$410.8165.3¢-$46.29

Cavaliers$142.3838.4¢+$46.98

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$291.58

Value

$241.53

PnL

+$50.61

Record

51%

205-197 (402)

HRTrading

Hawks

Invested

$160.89

Value

$229.05

PnL

+$68.16

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

woshikd99

Hawks

Invested

$92

Value

$108.6

PnL

+$16.6

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

balthazarCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$0.6

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$28.8

Record

61%

20914-13310 (34224)

shoemanhere<$100

Hawks

Invested

$44.6

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$19.1

Record

56%

7066-5462 (12528)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Hawks

Invested

$39.6

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$19.2

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hawks

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.81

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$42.27

Value

$9.31

PnL

-$13.69

Record

57%

13416-10256 (23672)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Hawks

Invested

$7.79

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

2132-1897 (4029)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.