Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Cavaliers (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Hawks (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (50%) · Hawks at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
6
Hawks 50%
$1.0K
$16.88
48.8¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Hawksavg 49¢ | $709.42 | $723.9 | +$14.48 | 53% 3930-3422 (7352) |
HE Herdonia | Cavaliersavg 51.7¢ | $117.74 | $117.45 | -$0.3 | 54% 3276-2826 (6102) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Hawksavg 48¢ | $103.29 | $107.59 | +$4.3 | 54% 17004-14250 (31254) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Cavaliersavg 52¢ | $71.16 | $68.43 | -$2.74 | 62% 4107-2513 (6620) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 44¢ | $7.72 | $8.78 | +$1.05 | 43% 3532-4771 (8303) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Cavaliersavg 51¢ | $8.44 | $8.53 | +$0.08 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
Invested
$709.42
Value
$723.9
PnL
+$14.48
Record
53%
3930-3422 (7352)
Invested
$117.74
Value
$117.45
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
3276-2826 (6102)
Invested
$103.29
Value
$107.59
PnL
+$4.3
Record
54%
17004-14250 (31254)
Invested
$71.16
Value
$68.43
PnL
-$2.74
Record
62%
4107-2513 (6620)
Invested
$7.72
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$1.05
Record
43%
3532-4771 (8303)
Invested
$8.44
Value
$8.53
PnL
+$0.08
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.