Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (75%) · Hawks at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
4
Hawks 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$8.73
64.7¢ → 78¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Hawksavg 48.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$16.83 | 56% 2802-2223 (5025) |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 48.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$5.74 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 53¢ | $587.77 | $576.68 | -$11.09 | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Cavaliersavg 36¢ | $77.04 | $111.28 | +$34.24 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5<$100 | Hawksavg 75¢ | $74.25 | $47.52 | -$26.73 | — |
TA takeormake<$100 | Hawksavg 47.1¢ | $27.3 | $27.84 | +$0.54 | 53% 3934-3425 (7359) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Hawksavg 65.1¢ | $7.16 | $7.84 | +$0.68 | 52% 3834-3490 (7324) |
Invested
$1,601.03
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$16.83
Record
56%
2802-2223 (5025)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.04
Value
$111.28
PnL
+$34.24
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Invested
$74.25
Value
$47.52
PnL
-$26.73
Record
—
Invested
$27.3
Value
$27.84
PnL
+$0.54
Record
53%
3934-3425 (7359)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.16
Value
$7.84
PnL
+$0.68
Record
52%
3834-3490 (7324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.