Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Hawks (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Cavaliers (-0.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (40%) · Cavaliers at 0.5¢ · $853 held · ended Oct 30

Cavaliers<1¢Hawks>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$853.21

Combined PnL

-$7.23

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers1%

Hawks100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$495.24

Total Shares985

Combined PnL-$7.41

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$5.16

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.18

Cavaliers — 40%Hawks — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 48.9¢	$501.02	$492.54	-$8.48	54% 17021-14267 (31288)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 38.1¢	$362.87	$352.81	-$10.06	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 38.1¢	$237.51	$215.26	-$22.25
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 59.7¢	$125.36	$137.55	+$12.19
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 29¢	$1.63	$2.69	+$1.07	57% 13416-10256 (23672)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$2.08	$2.12	+$0.04	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
balthazar<$100	Hawksavg 38¢	$1.46	$2	+$0.54	61% 20914-13310 (34224)
HRTrading<$100	Hawksavg 72¢	$1.44	$1.04	-$0.4	52% 3834-3490 (7324)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$501.02

Value

$492.54

PnL

-$8.48

Record

54%

17021-14267 (31288)

takeormakeARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$362.87

Value

$352.81

PnL

-$10.06

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$237.5138.1¢-$22.25

Hawks$125.3659.7¢+$12.19

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1.63

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$1.07

Record

57%

13416-10256 (23672)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

balthazar<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1.46

Value

PnL

+$0.54

Record

61%

20914-13310 (34224)

HRTrading<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.