Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 239.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$1.3
48.6¢ → 48.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 49.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$15.38 | 54% 17416-14612 (32028) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.9¢ | $873.5 | $848.98 | -$24.52 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.8¢ | $641.3 | $650.44 | +$9.13 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $245 | $245 | +$0 | 53% 5731-5065 (10796) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $120 | $121.25 | +$1.25 | 58% 43195-31436 (74631) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $23.64 | $23.64 | +$0 | 56% 14473-11230 (25703) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4.85 | +$0.05 | 55% 7414-5959 (13373) |
Invested
$1,514.8
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$15.38
Record
54%
17416-14612 (32028)
Both legs:
Invested
$245
Value
$245
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5731-5065 (10796)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$120
Value
$121.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
58%
43195-31436 (74631)
Invested
$23.64
Value
$23.64
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14473-11230 (25703)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
7414-5959 (13373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.