Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 47¢ · $66 held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
$66.37
-$1.52
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.9¢ | $36.89 | $34.72 | -$1.04 | 53% 3445-2995 (6440) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47.9¢ | $24.56 | $23.57 | -$0.48 | 58% 43237-31478 (74715) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $8.09 | $8.09 | +$0 | 56% 14530-11397 (25927) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.