Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 44¢ · $340 held · ends Nov 3

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$340.15

Combined PnL

-$10.35

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 44¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$338.8

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$10.35

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.35

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 46¢	$230	$220	-$10	53% 5731-5065 (10796)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44.4¢	$111.1	$110	+$0.15	58% 43195-31436 (74631)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.2	$8.8	-$0.5	55% 7414-5959 (13373)
HE Herdonia<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.35	$1.35	-$0	54% 3443-2988 (6431)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$230

Value

$220

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5731-5065 (10796)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$111.1

Value

$110

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

43195-31436 (74631)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

Herdonia<$100

Over

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

3443-2988 (6431)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.