Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

16 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (62%) · Bulls at 51¢ · $97K held · ended Nov 3

76ers49¢Bulls51¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$97.3K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 51¢

+10% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

16 of 26 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers49%

Bulls51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls16 traders

Total Value$39.8K

Total Shares79,843

Combined PnL+$3.3K

76ers10 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares18,692

Combined PnL-$433.02

Bulls — 62%76ers — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrBulls 50% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 57% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bullsavg 44.1¢	$36.9K	$38.7K	+$1.8K	54% 17538-14741 (32279)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 44.1¢	$19.2K	$22.9K	+$3.7K
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53.1¢	$17.7K	$15.8K	$-1.9K
zb8	Bullsavg 47¢	$12.8K	$14.3K	+$1.5K	53% 642-566 (1208)
CH chongchong37	Bullsavg 47¢	$14.1K	$13.5K	+$150.15	53% 126-112 (238)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Bullsavg 44.5¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$322.12	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 44.5¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$481.4
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$159.28
VeryLucky888	Bullsavg 43.8¢	$6.1K	$3.7K	+$656.86	58% 43802-31874 (75676)
PP ppku6298	Bullsavg 47¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$369.79	45% 102-125 (227)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	76ersavg 51.8¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$286.92	53% 627-550 (1177)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Bullsavg 44.4¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$235.26	54% 3481-3017 (6498)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 44.4¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$339.87
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53¢	$1.0K	$908.58	-$104.6
nigiri99CTR	76ersavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.61	46% 8110-9449 (17559)
SE sentrioCTR	76ersavg 52.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$76.23	50% 25054-24766 (49820)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 53.3¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	+$4.24	47% 13296-14825 (28121)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46.1¢	$726.47	$804.44	+$73.25
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53.3¢	$845.99	$777.93	-$69.01
HI hi774c	Bullsavg 45¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$122.22	51% 4861-4606 (9467)
GA gagarin59	Bullsavg 48¢	$999.84	$1.1K	+$93.73	51% 741-713 (1454)
AN Anon455	Bullsavg 44.5¢	$902.22	$1.1K	+$158.33	55% 3195-2597 (5792)
FO forecastication4CTR	76ersavg 53.5¢	$912.78	$939.02	-$16.45	50% 1254-1266 (2520)
LI LightParadoxCTR	76ersavg 53¢	$674.01	$611.72	-$62.29	53% 520-452 (972)
65 6512395314597884CTR	76ersavg 53.1¢	$705.8	$571.7	-$134.1	51% 4306-4131 (8437)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Bullsavg 37¢	$370	$525	+$155	46% 392-454 (846)
FY FYYY0689	Bullsavg 46¢	$512.58	$501.44	+$16.72	49% 36-38 (74)
RN1	Bullsavg 46¢	$230	$282.5	+$52.5	54% 58340-50554 (108894)
poshposhCTR	76ersavg 53¢	$249.21	$258.61	-$2.35	58% 11595-8431 (20026)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	76ersavg 52¢	$208	$220	+$12	51% 1612-1552 (3164)
FE ferdinand2CTR	76ersavg 53¢	$146.82	$132.6	-$0.54	48% 5652-6118 (11770)
LI Limousin<$100	Bullsavg 41.4¢	$48.41	$61.43	+$13.02	53% 508-458 (966)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bullsavg 45¢	$40.32	$47.04	+$6.72	50% 34859-34309 (69168)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$36,892.52

Value

$38.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

54%

17538-14741 (32279)

Both legs:

Bulls$19,19744.1¢+$3.7K

76ers$17,695.5153.1¢$-1.9K

zb8

Bulls

Invested

$12,836.38

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

53%

642-566 (1208)

chongchong37

Bulls

Invested

$14,099.99

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$150.15

Record

53%

126-112 (238)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$4,208.21

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$322.12

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

Both legs:

Bulls$2,673.3344.5¢+$481.4

76ers$1,534.8853¢-$159.28

VeryLucky888

Bulls

Invested

$6,099.67

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$656.86

Record

58%

43802-31874 (75676)

ppku6298

Bulls

Invested

$3,160

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$369.79

Record

45%

102-125 (227)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

76ers

Invested

$3,432.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$286.92

Record

53%

627-550 (1177)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2,870.02

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$235.26

Record

54%

3481-3017 (6498)

Both legs:

Bulls$1,856.8444.4¢+$339.87

76ers$1,013.1853¢-$104.6

nigiri99CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,972.66

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.61

Record

46%

8110-9449 (17559)

sentrioCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,540.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$76.23

Record

50%

25054-24766 (49820)

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,955.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$4.24

Record

47%

13296-14825 (28121)

Both legs:

Bulls$726.4746.1¢+$73.25

76ers$845.9953.3¢-$69.01

hi774c

Bulls

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$122.22

Record

51%

4861-4606 (9467)

gagarin59

Bulls

Invested

$999.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$93.73

Record

51%

741-713 (1454)

Anon455

Bulls

Invested

$902.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$158.33

Record

55%

3195-2597 (5792)

forecastication4CTR

76ers

Invested

$912.78

Value

$939.02

PnL

-$16.45

Record

50%

1254-1266 (2520)

LightParadoxCTR

76ers

Invested

$674.01

Value

$611.72

PnL

-$62.29

Record

53%

520-452 (972)

6512395314597884CTR

76ers

Invested

$705.8

Value

$571.7

PnL

-$134.1

Record

51%

4306-4131 (8437)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Bulls

Invested

$370

Value

$525

PnL

+$155

Record

46%

392-454 (846)

FYYY0689

Bulls

Invested

$512.58

Value

$501.44

PnL

+$16.72

Record

49%

36-38 (74)

RN1

Bulls

Invested

$230

Value

$282.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

54%

58340-50554 (108894)

poshposhCTR

76ers

Invested

$249.21

Value

$258.61

PnL

-$2.35

Record

58%

11595-8431 (20026)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

76ers

Invested

$208

Value

$220

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

1612-1552 (3164)

ferdinand2CTR

76ers

Invested

$146.82

Value

$132.6

PnL

-$0.54

Record

48%

5652-6118 (11770)

Limousin<$100

Bulls

Invested

$48.41

Value

$61.43

PnL

+$13.02

Record

53%

508-458 (966)

SnakeBall<$100

Bulls

Invested

$40.32

Value

$47.04

PnL

+$6.72

Record

50%

34859-34309 (69168)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

16 of 26 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrBulls 50% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 57% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.