Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 248.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 95¢ · $22K held · ended Oct 30

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

$223.45

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 95¢

+91% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,260

Combined PnL-$90.11

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,747

Combined PnL+$313.56

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 50.4¢	$9.9K	$10.1K	+$133.57	48% 788-869 (1657)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.4¢	$5.4K	$5.8K	+$379.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.6¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$245.72
NooseracARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$6.8K	$6.5K	-$340.92	52% 5767-5340 (11107)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$308.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$32.8
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Underavg 49.5¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$60.31	45% 129-156 (285)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$307.3	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
latvian.demon	Underavg 55¢	$329.45	$326.46	-$2.99	54% 683-581 (1264)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 46.5¢	$278.52	$251.72	-$26.8	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 55¢	$121.39	$128.01	+$6.62	55% 2868-2301 (5169)
HRTradingARB<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$105.54	$90.21	-$15.33	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.7¢	$44.42	$58.04	+$13.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.1¢	$61.12	$32.17	-$28.95
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.9	$2.55	-$2.35	50% 7865-7894 (15759)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$2.32	$1.53	+$1.99	57% 13671-10458 (24129)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,939.71

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$133.57

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

Both legs:

Under$5,374.0850.4¢+$379.28

Over$4,565.6348.6¢-$245.72

NooseracARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,836.58

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$340.92

Record

52%

5767-5340 (11107)

Both legs:

Over$5,032.749¢-$308.12

Under$1,803.8855¢-$32.8

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Under

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$60.31

Record

45%

129-156 (285)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,728.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$307.3

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$329.45

Value

$326.46

PnL

-$2.99

Record

54%

683-581 (1264)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$278.52

Value

$251.72

PnL

-$26.8

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$121.39

Value

$128.01

PnL

+$6.62

Record

55%

2868-2301 (5169)

HRTradingARB<$100

Over

Invested

$105.54

Value

$90.21

PnL

-$15.33

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

Both legs:

Under$44.4254.7¢+$13.62

Over$61.1254.1¢-$28.95

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$2.35

Record

50%

7865-7894 (15759)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.32

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$1.99

Record

57%

13671-10458 (24129)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.