Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (94%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 244.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (88%) · Over at 6.5¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 88%
$13.0K
-$269.61
49.3¢ → 6.5¢
-87% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Under 94%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51¢ | $6.2K | $8.3K | +$2.0K | 48% 788-869 (1657) |
 NooseracCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $5.9K | $3.9K | $-2.0K | 52% 5767-5340 (11107) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 53.3¢ | $721.28 | $561.96 | -$159.32 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
 latvian.demonCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $254.99 | $162.5 | -$92.5 | 54% 683-581 (1264) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $112.81 | $73.33 | -$39.48 | 49% 19066-19466 (38532) |
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $32.67 | $37.62 | +$4.95 | 56% 7083-5470 (12553) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 39.6¢ | $32.14 | $34.74 | +$2.6 | 53% 4191-3790 (7981) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $1.62 | -$0.82 | 50% 7865-7894 (15759) |
Invested
$6,247.54
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
48%
788-869 (1657)
NooseracCTRInvested
$5,910.3
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
52%
5767-5340 (11107)
Invested
$721.28
Value
$561.96
PnL
-$159.32
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
latvian.demonCTRInvested
$254.99
Value
$162.5
PnL
-$92.5
Record
54%
683-581 (1264)
Invested
$112.81
Value
$73.33
PnL
-$39.48
Record
49%
19066-19466 (38532)
Invested
$32.67
Value
$37.62
PnL
+$4.95
Record
56%
7083-5470 (12553)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$32.14
Value
$34.74
PnL
+$2.6
Record
53%
4191-3790 (7981)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$0.82
Record
50%
7865-7894 (15759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.