Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 242.5

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 10¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$151.92

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 10¢

-79% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,109

Combined PnL+$151.92

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$9.25	48% 788-869 (1657)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 55.7¢	$890.01	$1.1K	+$172.94	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 43.7¢	$305.14	$294.25	-$10.89	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$110.59	$111.12	+$0.53	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$75.17	$76.47	+$1.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$35.42	$34.65	-$0.77
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$18.44	$17.57	-$0.87	53% 4191-3790 (7981)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$1,762.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$9.25

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$890.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$172.94

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$305.14

Value

$294.25

PnL

-$10.89

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$110.59

Value

$111.12

PnL

+$0.53

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

Both legs:

Under$75.1754.1¢+$1.3

Over$35.4246¢-$0.77

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.44

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$0.87

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.