Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 240.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 12¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
-$56
52.4¢ → 11.5¢
-78% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 51.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$17.45 | 48% 788-869 (1657) |
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360 | Underavg 49¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0 | 45% 129-156 (285) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 56.7¢ | $470.93 | $419.14 | -$51.79 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $133.67 | $143.66 | +$9.99 | 59% 45474-31848 (77322) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $66.74 | $74.55 | +$7.81 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $66.93 | $69.11 | +$2.18 | |
 HRTrading | Underavg 50.1¢ | $97.28 | $108.29 | +$11.01 | 53% 4191-3790 (7981) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 47.9¢ | $34.43 | $36.66 | +$2.22 | 46% 8113-9541 (17654) |
Invested
$1,896.8
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$17.45
Record
48%
788-869 (1657)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
129-156 (285)
Invested
$470.93
Value
$419.14
PnL
-$51.79
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
Invested
$133.67
Value
$143.66
PnL
+$9.99
Record
59%
45474-31848 (77322)
Both legs:
HRTradingInvested
$97.28
Value
$108.29
PnL
+$11.01
Record
53%
4191-3790 (7981)
Invested
$34.43
Value
$36.66
PnL
+$2.22
Record
46%
8113-9541 (17654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.