Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (83%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 238.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 18¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$11.3K
$897.23
48.1¢ → 17.5¢
-64% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luckycat888888CTR | Underavg 55¢ | $4.4K | $5.2K | +$800 | 51% 51-49 (100) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 45¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$51.67 | 54% 17124-14337 (31461) |
LZ lzh1 | Overavg 64.7¢ | $656.79 | $649.66 | -$7.13 | 43% 461-611 (1072) |
AN Anon455CTR | Underavg 25¢ | $598.23 | $586.26 | -$11.96 | 55% 2862-2296 (5158) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 57¢ | $189.88 | $248.07 | +$58.19 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
 HRTrading | Overavg 74.8¢ | $177.71 | $185.86 | +$8.15 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 43.6¢ | $10.37 | $8.32 | -$2.05 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $5.42 | $5.79 | +$0.38 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
Invested
$4,399.99
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$800
Record
51%
51-49 (100)
Invested
$4,349.4
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$51.67
Record
54%
17124-14337 (31461)
Invested
$656.79
Value
$649.66
PnL
-$7.13
Record
43%
461-611 (1072)
Invested
$598.23
Value
$586.26
PnL
-$11.96
Record
55%
2862-2296 (5158)
Invested
$189.88
Value
$248.07
PnL
+$58.19
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
HRTradingInvested
$177.71
Value
$185.86
PnL
+$8.15
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$10.37
Value
$8.32
PnL
-$2.05
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$5.79
PnL
+$0.38
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.