Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 236.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 52¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$9.3K
-$41.87
51.2¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$50.52 | 54% 17119-14335 (31454) |
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | -$87.51 | 61% 3922-2462 (6384) |
 RN1 | Underavg 53¢ | $248.64 | $244.14 | -$4.5 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 52.3¢ | $192.66 | $198.72 | +$6.05 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.3¢ | $111.45 | $110.76 | +$2.51 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.1¢ | $84.41 | $87.96 | +$3.55 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51.5¢ | $127.5 | $128.75 | +$1.25 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 52.6¢ | $53.39 | $52.53 | -$1.02 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $32.45 | $31.83 | -$0.61 | 50% 24907-24598 (49505) |
Invested
$4,422.4
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$50.52
Record
54%
17119-14335 (31454)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,288
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$87.51
Record
61%
3922-2462 (6384)
RN1Invested
$248.64
Value
$244.14
PnL
-$4.5
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$192.66
Value
$198.72
PnL
+$6.05
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.5
Value
$128.75
PnL
+$1.25
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$53.39
Value
$52.53
PnL
-$1.02
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$32.45
Value
$31.83
PnL
-$0.61
Record
50%
24907-24598 (49505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.