Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$54.93
47.6¢ → 48.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 47.6¢ | $668.06 | $684.19 | +$16.13 | 54% 17065-14298 (31363) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.6¢ | $453.24 | $471.43 | +$18.19 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $214.82 | $212.77 | -$2.06 | |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $172.35 | $218.19 | +$45.84 | 52% 4697-4417 (9114) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $215.84 | $180.39 | +$1.98 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52¢ | $108.68 | $107.64 | -$1.05 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $70.5 | $72.75 | +$3.03 | |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $63.21 | $76.76 | +$13.54 | 38% 368-605 (973) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $243.71 | $45.72 | -$2.03 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $12.18 | $9.67 | -$2.51 | 54% 3281-2830 (6111) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $8.33 | $8.42 | +$0.08 | 58% 28351-20930 (49281) |
Invested
$668.06
Value
$684.19
PnL
+$16.13
Record
54%
17065-14298 (31363)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.35
Value
$218.19
PnL
+$45.84
Record
52%
4697-4417 (9114)
Invested
$215.84
Value
$180.39
PnL
+$1.98
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.21
Value
$76.76
PnL
+$13.54
Record
38%
368-605 (973)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$243.71
Value
$45.72
PnL
-$2.03
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
Invested
$12.18
Value
$9.67
PnL
-$2.51
Record
54%
3281-2830 (6111)
Invested
$8.33
Value
$8.42
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
28351-20930 (49281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.