Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (91%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 9.0¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.7K
$168.83
42.7¢ → 9¢
-79% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 91%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$145.92 | 54% 17124-14337 (31461) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $123.53 | $141.55 | +$18.01 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $41.02 | $39.32 | -$1.7 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $26.7 | $28.26 | +$1.57 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 42.9¢ | $22.31 | $26 | +$3.69 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $6.1 | $7.44 | +$1.34 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
Invested
$1,333.58
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$145.92
Record
54%
17124-14337 (31461)
RN1CTRInvested
$123.53
Value
$141.55
PnL
+$18.01
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$41.02
Value
$39.32
PnL
-$1.7
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.7
Value
$28.26
PnL
+$1.57
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$22.31
Value
$26
PnL
+$3.69
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$7.44
PnL
+$1.34
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.