Spread: Celtics (-33.5)

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (100%) · Bulls at 92¢ · $484 held · ended Oct 30

Celtics8¢Bulls92¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$484.48

Combined PnL

$5.67

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics8%

Bulls92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls2 traders

Total Value$102.95

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$5.67

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bullsavg 90.3¢	$296.28	$290.52	-$5.76	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 90.3¢	$202.74	$206.48	+$0.54
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 8.6¢	$90.34	$84.04	-$6.3
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Celticsavg 31.1¢	$204.87	$91.01	-$113.86	59% 30410-21120 (51530)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 60¢	$30	$46	+$16
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 31.1¢	$174.87	$45.01	-$129.86
HRTrading<$100	Bullsavg 89.3¢	$61.28	$61.55	+$0.27	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
TA takeormake<$100	Bullsavg 80¢	$36	$41.4	+$5.4	53% 4002-3482 (7484)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$296.28

Value

$290.52

PnL

-$5.76

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

Both legs:

Bulls$202.7490.3¢+$0.54

Celtics$90.348.6¢-$6.3

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$204.87

Value

$91.01

PnL

-$113.86

Record

59%

30410-21120 (51530)

Both legs:

Bulls$3060¢+$16

Celtics$174.8731.1¢-$129.86

HRTrading<$100

Bulls

Invested

$61.28

Value

$61.55

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

takeormake<$100

Bulls

Invested

$36

Value

$41.4

PnL

+$5.4

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.