Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Bulls (91%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtics (-31.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (57%) · Celtics at 9.0¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Celtics9¢Bulls91¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 57%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$66.41

Smart Money Entry

33.6¢ → 9¢

-73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics9%

Bulls91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$641.22

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$0.79

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$668.51

Total Shares2,192

Combined PnL-$65.61

Bulls — 43%Celtics — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 87.4¢	$598.75	$547.05	-$18.24	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Celticsavg 39.1¢	$443.63	$397	-$46.63	59% 30410-21120 (51530)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Celticsavg 39¢	$168.63	$159.98	-$8.65	49% 19066-19466 (38532)
TA takeormakeCTR	Celticsavg 20.2¢	$118.55	$108.41	-$10.14	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
AN Anon455<$100	Bullsavg 70¢	$55.35	$72.74	+$17.39	55% 2868-2301 (5169)
HRTrading<$100	Bullsavg 84.9¢	$21.38	$21.43	+$0.05	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Celticsavg 12¢	$3.31	$3.12	-$0.2	50% 6984-6978 (13962)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$598.75

Value

$547.05

PnL

-$18.24

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Celtics

Invested

$443.63

Value

$397

PnL

-$46.63

Record

59%

30410-21120 (51530)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Celtics

Invested

$168.63

Value

$159.98

PnL

-$8.65

Record

49%

19066-19466 (38532)

takeormakeCTR

Celtics

Invested

$118.55

Value

$108.41

PnL

-$10.14

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

Anon455<$100

Bulls

Invested

$55.35

Value

$72.74

PnL

+$17.39

Record

55%

2868-2301 (5169)

HRTrading<$100

Bulls

Invested

$21.38

Value

$21.43

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

6984-6978 (13962)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.