Spread: Celtics (-29.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (67%) · Bulls at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
6
Bulls 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$5.86
84.8¢ → 86¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Bullsavg 84.7¢ | $792.8 | $676.85 | +$2.19 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
UP UpTheBlues | Bullsavg 85¢ | $177.31 | $176.27 | -$1.04 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 16¢ | $87.52 | $82.05 | -$5.47 | 50% 6977-6973 (13950) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Bullsavg 84¢ | $77.77 | $78.25 | +$0.48 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 84¢ | $40.28 | $40.76 | +$0.48 | |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 15¢ | $37.5 | $37.5 | -$0 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Bullsavg 84.2¢ | $41.28 | $42.14 | +$0.86 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 15¢ | $36.72 | $34.27 | -$2.45 | 52% 374-341 (715) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Bullsavg 85.5¢ | $9.92 | $9.98 | +$0.06 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
Invested
$792.8
Value
$676.85
PnL
+$2.19
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$177.31
Value
$176.27
PnL
-$1.04
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$87.52
Value
$82.05
PnL
-$5.47
Record
50%
6977-6973 (13950)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$77.77
Value
$78.25
PnL
+$0.48
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.28
Value
$42.14
PnL
+$0.86
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$36.72
Value
$34.27
PnL
-$2.45
Record
52%
374-341 (715)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.92
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.