Spread: Celtics (-27.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (71%) · Bulls at 82¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Celtics18¢Bulls82¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$106.08

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 82¢

+46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics18%

Bulls82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,129

Combined PnL+$453.78

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$821.96

Total Shares2,965

Combined PnL-$559.86

Bulls — 71%Celtics — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Bullsavg 58.6¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$148.83	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Bullsavg 51¢	$500	$803.92	+$303.92	47% 313-354 (667)
AN Anon455CTR	Celticsavg 47.4¢	$1.1K	$536.65	-$555.6	55% 2868-2301 (5169)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Bullsavg 55¢	$354.74	$390.65	+$35.91	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 55¢	$262.4	$283.8	+$21.4
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 35¢	$92.34	$106.85	+$14.51
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Celticsavg 34¢	$289.57	$285.31	-$4.26	49% 19066-19466 (38532)
HRTradingARB<$100	Bullsavg 78.8¢	$90.1	$76.22	-$13.88	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 78.8¢	$51.99	$45.87	-$6.12
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 38.3¢	$38.11	$30.35	-$7.76
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Bullsavg 54¢	$75.41	$76.11	+$0.7	48% 788-869 (1657)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bullsavg 81¢	$18.92	$19.13	+$0.2	57% 13671-10458 (24129)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bullsavg 81¢	$9.72	$9.84	+$0.12	58% 28489-21037 (49526)

takeormake

Bulls

Invested

$1,343.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$148.83

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Bulls

Invested

$500

Value

$803.92

PnL

+$303.92

Record

47%

313-354 (667)

Anon455CTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,092.24

Value

$536.65

PnL

-$555.6

Record

55%

2868-2301 (5169)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$354.74

Value

$390.65

PnL

+$35.91

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

Both legs:

Bulls$262.455¢+$21.4

Celtics$92.3435¢+$14.51

omnibus-076daaCTR

Celtics

Invested

$289.57

Value

$285.31

PnL

-$4.26

Record

49%

19066-19466 (38532)

HRTradingARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$90.1

Value

$76.22

PnL

-$13.88

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

Both legs:

Bulls$51.9978.8¢-$6.12

Celtics$38.1138.3¢-$7.76

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Bulls

Invested

$75.41

Value

$76.11

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

ghorrock<$100

Bulls

Invested

$18.92

Value

$19.13

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

13671-10458 (24129)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.