Spread: Celtics (-25.5)

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (29%) · Celtics at 74¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 30

Celtics74¢Bulls26¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$254.75

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 74¢

+50% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics74%

Bulls26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,430

Combined PnL-$85.83

Bulls10 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,515

Combined PnL-$168.93

Celtics — 29%Bulls — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA SadSquid54333	Celticsavg 49.7¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$120.24	58% 169-123 (292)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Celticsavg 54.3¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$97.18	55% 2862-2296 (5158)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 54.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$77.18
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$980	-$20
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bullsavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$58.56	48% 783-852 (1635)
TA takeormake	Celticsavg 51.4¢	$551.51	$557.8	+$6.29	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Bullsavg 54.7¢	$583.57	$523.19	-$60.38	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Bullsavg 45¢	$500	$483.33	-$16.67	47% 313-354 (667)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bullsavg 77¢	$393.56	$434.4	+$40.84	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 77¢	$273.83	$256.05	+$1.78
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 21.9¢	$139.29	$178.35	+$39.06
hammyandcheese	Celticsavg 51¢	$357.38	$385.41	+$28.03	56% 380-301 (681)
TO torta.techCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$170.88	$153.08	-$17.8	63% 8104-4850 (12954)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Bullsavg 79¢	$65.87	$64.62	-$1.25	38% 383-624 (1007)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Bullsavg 53¢	$61.48	$60.9	-$0.58	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Bullsavg 74¢	$58.46	$56.88	-$1.58	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Celticsavg 22.9¢	$38.78	$38.03	+$0.09	50% 6977-6973 (13950)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Bullsavg 41.4¢	$44.7	$33.48	-$11.22	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Bullsavg 77¢	$18.48	$18.6	+$0	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$8.54	$7.65	-$0.89	53% 6124-5371 (11495)

SadSquid54333

Celtics

Invested

$2,765.7

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$120.24

Record

58%

169-123 (292)

Anon455ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2,271.54

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$97.18

Record

55%

2862-2296 (5158)

Both legs:

Celtics$1,271.5454.3¢-$77.18

Bulls$1,00050¢-$20

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,331.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$58.56

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

takeormake

Celtics

Invested

$551.51

Value

$557.8

PnL

+$6.29

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

UpTheBluesCTR

Bulls

Invested

$583.57

Value

$523.19

PnL

-$60.38

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Bulls

Invested

$500

Value

$483.33

PnL

-$16.67

Record

47%

313-354 (667)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$393.56

Value

$434.4

PnL

+$40.84

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Bulls$273.8377¢+$1.78

Celtics$139.2921.9¢+$39.06

hammyandcheese

Celtics

Invested

$357.38

Value

$385.41

PnL

+$28.03

Record

56%

380-301 (681)

torta.techCTR

Bulls

Invested

$170.88

Value

$153.08

PnL

-$17.8

Record

63%

8104-4850 (12954)

OddstormCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$65.87

Value

$64.62

PnL

-$1.25

Record

38%

383-624 (1007)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$61.48

Value

$60.9

PnL

-$0.58

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$58.46

Value

$56.88

PnL

-$1.58

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

Forecastication2<$100

Celtics

Invested

$38.78

Value

$38.03

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

6977-6973 (13950)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$44.7

Value

$33.48

PnL

-$11.22

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$18.48

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$8.54

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$0.89

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.