Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Celtics (78%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtics (-23.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (50%) · Bulls at 23¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Celtics78¢Bulls22¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$220.11

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 22.5¢

-63% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics78%

Bulls23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls6 traders

Total Value$545.38

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL-$242.57

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$398.16

Total Shares803

Combined PnL+$22.47

Bulls — 50%Celtics — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Bullsavg 61.4¢	$661.21	$425.22	-$235.99	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
TA takeormake	Celticsavg 56.8¢	$203.35	$209.2	+$5.85	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Bullsavg 43.5¢	$135.24	$147.98	+$12.74	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 43.5¢	$85.26	$99.96	+$14.7
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 51¢	$49.98	$48.02	-$1.96
38 38791873984189<$100	Celticsavg 27¢	$55.4	$67.69	+$12.29	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Bullsavg 67¢	$66.33	$66.33	+$0	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
AN Anon455<$100	Celticsavg 60¢	$61.14	$62.67	+$1.53	55% 2862-2296 (5158)
RN1<$100	Celticsavg 26¢	$44.71	$47.36	+$2.65	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Bullsavg 46¢	$33.12	$30.96	-$2.16	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bullsavg 45¢	$14.11	$13.01	-$1.1	48% 783-852 (1635)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Bullsavg 74.5¢	$12.46	$9.14	-$3.32	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Celticsavg 27¢	$8.1	$8.25	+$0.15	50% 6977-6973 (13950)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Celticsavg 52¢	$2.99	$2.99	+$0	49% 19048-19445 (38493)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Bullsavg 73¢	$0.73	$0.73	-$0.01	58% 28450-21016 (49466)

UpTheBluesCTR

Bulls

Invested

$661.21

Value

$425.22

PnL

-$235.99

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

takeormake

Celtics

Invested

$203.35

Value

$209.2

PnL

+$5.85

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$135.24

Value

$147.98

PnL

+$12.74

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

Both legs:

Bulls$85.2643.5¢+$14.7

Celtics$49.9851¢-$1.96

38791873984189<$100

Celtics

Invested

$55.4

Value

$67.69

PnL

+$12.29

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$66.33

Value

$66.33

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

Anon455<$100

Celtics

Invested

$61.14

Value

$62.67

PnL

+$1.53

Record

55%

2862-2296 (5158)

RN1<$100

Celtics

Invested

$44.71

Value

$47.36

PnL

+$2.65

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$33.12

Value

$30.96

PnL

-$2.16

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$14.11

Value

$13.01

PnL

-$1.1

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$12.46

Value

$9.14

PnL

-$3.32

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Forecastication2<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

6977-6973 (13950)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

19048-19445 (38493)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.