Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Bulls (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-20.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (67%) · Celtics at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
6
Celtics 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$91.39
45¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Celticsavg 70.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$237.43 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 70.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | +$144.48 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 30.7¢ | $417.99 | $510.94 | +$92.95 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Celticsavg 46.4¢ | $403.48 | $395.68 | -$7.8 | 59% 45474-31848 (77322) |
AN Anon455CTR | Celticsavg 49.9¢ | $204.16 | $126.85 | -$77.31 | 55% 2868-2301 (5169) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Celticsavg 72.5¢ | $55.17 | $79.93 | +$24.76 | 53% 4191-3790 (7981) |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 17.5¢ | $21.51 | $53.94 | +$32.43 | |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 72.5¢ | $33.66 | $25.98 | -$7.68 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 33¢ | $82.5 | $77.5 | -$5 | 54% 56399-48569 (104968) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Bullsavg 49¢ | $24.5 | $34.5 | +$10 | 48% 788-869 (1657) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 43¢ | $42.14 | $30.38 | -$11.76 | 54% 10681-9281 (19962) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Bullsavg 66¢ | $10.56 | $11.04 | +$0.48 | 58% 28489-21037 (49526) |
Invested
$1,452.86
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$237.43
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
Both legs:
Invested
$403.48
Value
$395.68
PnL
-$7.8
Record
59%
45474-31848 (77322)
Invested
$204.16
Value
$126.85
PnL
-$77.31
Record
55%
2868-2301 (5169)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$55.17
Value
$79.93
PnL
+$24.76
Record
53%
4191-3790 (7981)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$82.5
Value
$77.5
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
56399-48569 (104968)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$10
Record
48%
788-869 (1657)
Invested
$42.14
Value
$30.38
PnL
-$11.76
Record
54%
10681-9281 (19962)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0.48
Record
58%
28489-21037 (49526)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.