Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Celtics (56%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-18.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (43%) · Bulls at 44¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
7
Bulls 43%
$6.1K
$279.84
57.5¢ → 44¢
-23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Bullsavg 62¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$50.26 | 62% 4127-2523 (6650) |
EN ENDBOSSLLC | Celticsavg 38¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$18.96 | 41% 264-375 (639) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Bullsavg 54.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$172.22 | 48% 788-869 (1657) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Bullsavg 21.1¢ | $97.73 | $120.64 | +$22.91 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Celticsavg 55¢ | $66.88 | $68.1 | +$1.22 | 59% 45474-31848 (77322) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Celticsavg 37.8¢ | $64.41 | $63.05 | -$1.36 | 46% 8113-9541 (17654) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Celticsavg 41.2¢ | $28.71 | $44.33 | +$15.62 | 53% 4191-3790 (7981) |
Invested
$3,116.27
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$50.26
Record
62%
4127-2523 (6650)
Invested
$1,441.34
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$18.96
Record
41%
264-375 (639)
Invested
$1,109.62
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$172.22
Record
48%
788-869 (1657)
Invested
$97.73
Value
$120.64
PnL
+$22.91
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
Invested
$66.88
Value
$68.1
PnL
+$1.22
Record
59%
45474-31848 (77322)
Invested
$64.41
Value
$63.05
PnL
-$1.36
Record
46%
8113-9541 (17654)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$28.71
Value
$44.33
PnL
+$15.62
Record
53%
4191-3790 (7981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.