Spread: Celtics (-17.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (60%) · Bulls at 60¢ · $474 held · ends Oct 30

Celtics41¢Bulls59¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 60%

Total Value

$473.73

Combined PnL

$2.57

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 59.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics41%

Bulls60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$451.63

Total Shares760

Combined PnL+$3.08

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$22.11

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$0.51

Bulls — 60%Celtics — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Bullsavg 59¢	$363.58	$366.67	+$3.08	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
38 38791873984189<$100	Bullsavg 59¢	$61.36	$61.36	+$0	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bullsavg 59¢	$23.6	$23.6	+$0	58% 28414-20974 (49388)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Celticsavg 41¢	$12.71	$12.56	-$0.15	52% 3998-3640 (7638)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Celticsavg 42¢	$9.91	$9.55	-$0.35	38% 377-619 (996)

VeryLucky888

Bulls

Invested

$363.58

Value

$366.67

PnL

+$3.08

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

38791873984189<$100

Bulls

Invested

$61.36

Value

$61.36

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bulls

Invested

$23.6

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28414-20974 (49388)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$12.71

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

OddstormCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.