Spread: Celtics (-16.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (73%) · Bulls at 60¢ · $31K held · ends Oct 30

Celtics41¢Bulls59¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.5K

Combined PnL

-$671.9

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics41%

Bulls60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$28.7K

Total Shares49,103

Combined PnL-$671.12

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$208.04

Total Shares486

Combined PnL-$0.78

Bulls — 73%Celtics — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Bullsavg 58¢	$11.4K	$11.0K	-$394.06	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bullsavg 57.6¢	$10.6K	$10.3K	-$222.45	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Bullsavg 58¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$30.16	47% 2473-2784 (5257)
VeryLucky888	Bullsavg 56.9¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$38.31	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
QU QuentinChen	Bullsavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$40.02	47% 316-360 (676)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bullsavg 57.7¢	$945.46	$810.41	-$5.27	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 57.7¢	$507.36	$492.24	-$15.12
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 42.4¢	$306.94	$318.17	+$9.85
RN1ARB<$100	Bullsavg 58.5¢	$800.18	$799.55	-$0.62	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 58.5¢	$573.34	$583.24	+$9.9
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 42.5¢	$226.84	$216.31	-$10.53
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Bullsavg 57¢	$570	$560	-$10	53% 5581-4949 (10530)
HRTradingCTR	Celticsavg 43.3¢	$100.38	$96.28	-$4.1	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bullsavg 56.6¢	$74.12	$77.95	+$3.82	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
GO goldmynameCTR<$100	Celticsavg 43¢	$75.68	$77.44	+$1.76	61% 131-85 (216)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Celticsavg 42¢	$32.76	$34.32	+$1.56	49% 1151-1188 (2339)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Bullsavg 56¢	$29.12	$29.12	-$0.26	50% 3806-3765 (7571)

SunlineTicker

Bulls

Invested

$11,427.84

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$394.06

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

HomeRunHazard

Bulls

Invested

$10,558.69

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$222.45

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Bulls

Invested

$3,498.3

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$30.16

Record

47%

2473-2784 (5257)

VeryLucky888

Bulls

Invested

$2,322.93

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$38.31

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

QuentinChen

Bulls

Invested

$1,160.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$40.02

Record

47%

316-360 (676)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$945.46

Value

$810.41

PnL

-$5.27

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Bulls$507.3657.7¢-$15.12

Celtics$306.9442.4¢+$9.85

RN1ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$800.18

Value

$799.55

PnL

-$0.62

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

Both legs:

Bulls$573.3458.5¢+$9.9

Celtics$226.8442.5¢-$10.53

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Bulls

Invested

$570

Value

$560

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5581-4949 (10530)

HRTradingCTR

Celtics

Invested

$100.38

Value

$96.28

PnL

-$4.1

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bulls

Invested

$74.12

Value

$77.95

PnL

+$3.82

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

goldmynameCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$75.68

Value

$77.44

PnL

+$1.76

Record

61%

131-85 (216)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$32.76

Value

$34.32

PnL

+$1.56

Record

49%

1151-1188 (2339)

NatoAlfista<$100

Bulls

Invested

$29.12

Value

$29.12

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.