Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Bulls (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-15.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (60%) · Celtics at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
5
Celtics 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$7.54
48¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Celticsavg 48¢ | $762.55 | $754.61 | -$7.94 | 53% 4002-3481 (7483) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Bullsavg 52¢ | $557.23 | $557.23 | -$0 | 54% 17115-14333 (31448) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Celticsavg 48¢ | $423.67 | $348.54 | +$3.39 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 48¢ | $208.8 | $206.63 | -$2.18 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 51¢ | $137.86 | $141.92 | +$5.56 | |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Celticsavg 48¢ | $328.2 | $328.35 | +$0.15 | 54% 3325-2874 (6199) |
 RN1CTR | Celticsavg 48¢ | $271.38 | $271.38 | -$0 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Bullsavg 52¢ | $26.52 | $26.78 | +$0.26 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
Invested
$762.55
Value
$754.61
PnL
-$7.94
Record
53%
4002-3481 (7483)
Invested
$557.23
Value
$557.23
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
17115-14333 (31448)
Invested
$423.67
Value
$348.54
PnL
+$3.39
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Both legs:
Invested
$328.2
Value
$328.35
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
3325-2874 (6199)
RN1CTRInvested
$271.38
Value
$271.38
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Invested
$26.52
Value
$26.78
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.