Spread: Celtics (-14.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (100%) · Celtics at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
6
Celtics 100%
$2.8K
$27.33
52.1¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Celticsavg 52¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$17.22 | 54% 17065-14298 (31363) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Celticsavg 52.8¢ | $422 | $424 | +$2 | 53% 383-337 (720) |
 VeryLucky888 | Celticsavg 52¢ | $260 | $262.5 | +$2.5 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
HE Herdonia | Celticsavg 52¢ | $208.76 | $212.77 | +$4.01 | 54% 3281-2830 (6111) |
38 38791873984189 | Celticsavg 52¢ | $132.09 | $133.36 | +$1.27 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Celticsavg 52¢ | $16.84 | $17.16 | +$0.32 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
Invested
$1,759.8
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$17.22
Record
54%
17065-14298 (31363)
Invested
$422
Value
$424
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
383-337 (720)
VeryLucky888Invested
$260
Value
$262.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
Invested
$208.76
Value
$212.77
PnL
+$4.01
Record
54%
3281-2830 (6111)
Invested
$132.09
Value
$133.36
PnL
+$1.27
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$16.84
Value
$17.16
PnL
+$0.32
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.