Spread: Celtics (-13.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (57%) · Celtics at 55¢ · $747 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 57%
$746.86
-$4.8
56¢ → 54.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Celticsavg 56¢ | $404.87 | $404.87 | -$3.62 | 53% 387-337 (724) |
38 38791873984189 | Celticsavg 56¢ | $142.62 | $142.62 | -$1.27 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
 RN1 | Celticsavg 56¢ | $112 | $113 | +$1 | 54% 56351-48500 (104851) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 45¢ | $43.47 | $42.99 | -$0.48 | 50% 3805-3765 (7570) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Celticsavg 57¢ | $22.29 | $21.9 | -$0.59 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 44¢ | $17.6 | $18 | +$0.2 | 58% 28432-20995 (49427) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 44¢ | $3.52 | $3.48 | -$0.04 | 59% 45388-31736 (77124) |
Invested
$404.87
Value
$404.87
PnL
-$3.62
Record
53%
387-337 (724)
Invested
$142.62
Value
$142.62
PnL
-$1.27
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
RN1Invested
$112
Value
$113
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
56351-48500 (104851)
Invested
$43.47
Value
$42.99
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
3805-3765 (7570)
Invested
$22.29
Value
$21.9
PnL
-$0.59
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
28432-20995 (49427)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$0.04
Record
59%
45388-31736 (77124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.